That’s because if the Cobbers hope to have any chance of being invited to the NCAA Division III playoffs, they need Bethel to upset Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference leader Augsburg in the game following Concordia’s.
"Everything hinges on whether Bethel beats Augsburg," Cobber coach Jim Christopherson said. "If Augsburg wins, it’s a moot point because they are in."
Here is the playoff scenario:
Augsburg (7-1 conference, 8-1 overall) is ranked fourth in the latest Midwest Region poll, behind Wisconsin-Whitewater, Simpson, Iowa and Wisconsin-LaCrosse. Concordia (6-2, 7-2) is sixth. The top four teams from the Midwest will be invited to the playoffs.
Augsburg sits alone atop the MIAC, one game ahead of Concordia, St. Thomas and St. John’s. If the Auggies defeat Bethel they will clinch the league title outright and wrap up a postseason berth.
But if Concordia defeats Carleton and Bethel beats Augsburg, that would give the Cobbers a share of the conference title and raise the possibility of them leap-frogging Augsburg to gain a playoff berth. Pairings are announced Nov. 23.
Even that is remote, since Augsburg defeated Concordia three weeks ago.
"We realize it is a long shot," Christopherson said.
St. Thomas and St. John’s play the final game tonight and the winner could gain a share of the league title, but it’s not likely either would make the postseason.
Concordia’s first job will be defeating Carleton, which has beaten only winless Macalester this year. The Knights (1-7, 1-8) are among the worst defensive teams in the MIAC, allowing 35 points and 381 yards per game.
"That’s been the biggest part of their problem, they can’t stop people," Christopherson said.
Offensively, Carleton has the league’s leading rusher in senior Skye Flanagan (99 yards a game) and a quarterback, senior C.G. Shoap, who is the school’s all-time passing leader with 5,113 yards on 379 completions. Senior receiver Steve Gorka has 46 catches.
But Christopherson, with his team coming off an impressive 45-19 thumping of Hamline, is confident. After having problems offensively in back-to-back losses to St. John’s and Augsburg, the Cobbers righted themselves against Hamline. Quarterbacks Ethan Pole and Troy Wanless combined to complete 18 of 22 passes against the Pipers and Concordia piled up 455 total yards.
"With us going to our short and intermediate passing game, we had a better mix of passing and running," Christopherson said.
The Cobbers are also injury free for the first time in several weeks. Running back Dan Steinbeisser returned from a knee injury to gain 64 yards against Hamline. Also healthy this week will be defensive tackle Jeff Gronner, cornerback Jarad Ziebarth and defensive tackle James Poock.
"We like the spark that Steinbeisser gives us," Christopherson said. "He is still not 100 percent but he gets the job done by giving us the tough yards and catching a few passes out of the backfield. He is kind of our inspirational leader out there."
Steinbeisser is one of 18 Concordia seniors who will possibly be playing their final game.
Three seniors – receiver Tory Langemo, right guard Jed Seeger and left tackle Noah Caron – have been four-year starters for the Cobbers.
"None of those three have missed one game in four years," Christopherson said. "They’ve been very important to Concordia football."
If everything happens just right today, they might get a chance to extend their careers by a game or two.